H.C. Wainwright trims Alnylam price target despite bullish long-term RNAi outlook

H.C. Wainwright has lowered its price target on Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) to $470 from $510, while maintaining a Buy rating on the stock. The revision reflected adjusted near-term estimates for AMVUTTRA, the company's RNA interference therapy, to align with management's guidance for continued net price normalization as the business scales.

Alnylam shares were trading at $291.37, near their 52-week low of $273.11 and down 41 per cent from their 52-week high of $495.55. The stock has fallen 27 per cent since the start of the year. Eight analysts revised their earnings estimates downward for the coming period, according to InvestingPro data, even as the company posted revenue growth of 83 per cent over the past twelve months.

H.C. Wainwright said it sees no deterioration in underlying AMVUTTRA demand, describing a market that remains materially underdiagnosed. The firm views the expanding category of stabilizer therapies for ATTR cardiomyopathy as additive rather than disruptive to Alnylam's position, arguing that rising diagnosis and treatment rates are growing the overall opportunity rather than eroding market share. The firm continues to project Alnylam's transthyretin amyloidosis franchise reaching more than $20bn in annual revenues by 2040.

The price-target revision followed a Roundtable webinar Alnylam hosted on June 25 covering ALN-6400, a subcutaneous, liver-directed small interfering RNA therapy targeting plasminogen. The candidate is designed to provide durable prophylactic bleeding protection for rare bleeding disorders, including hereditary hemorrhagic telangiectasia and von Willebrand disease. Phase 1 data in healthy volunteers and initial Phase 2 results in hereditary hemorrhagic telangiectasia patients are expected by the end of 2026.

H.C. Wainwright has incorporated potential value from ALN-6400 into its broader estimate of $62 per share for Alnylam's pipeline platform.

The price-target cut comes amid a run of strategic announcements from Alnylam. The company recently disclosed a collaboration with Inceptive Nucleics worth up to $2bn to apply artificial intelligence to RNA interference drug development, including an upfront payment of $30mn with additional milestone-based payments to follow. Alnylam has also broadened its partnership with Komodo Health to extend use of the Marmot analytics platform across more of its operations, and has expanded a commercial agreement with GENESIS Pharma to cover Nordic markets — Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden — for the commercialization of its cardiomyopathy and rare genetic disease therapies.