Moderna Beats Revenue Estimates as Investors Await Pivotal FDA Flu Vaccine Ruling

Moderna (MRNA) posted stronger-than-expected second-quarter revenue, buoyed by vaccine partnership payments and overseas sales of its COVID-19 shot, as the company awaits a decision that could mark the most significant expansion of its mRNA platform since the pandemic.

Total revenue came in at $145mn, well ahead of the $103mn analysts had forecast. The company's net loss of $1.97 per share was narrower than the $2.08 Wall Street had anticipated.

"Looking across the three-year horizon, we are building toward a broader and more diversified portfolio while continuing to expand our global commercial footprint," said Stephen Hoge, president of Moderna, on a call with analysts.

The biotech is leaning on government partnership agreements with the UK, Canada and Australia, alongside a cost-reduction drive and portfolio diversification, to sustain growth amid an uncertain US regulatory climate for vaccines. Research and development expenses fell seven per cent year-over-year to $651mn in the quarter, reflecting the wind-down of several late-stage programs. The company trimmed its full-year R&D expense outlook to approximately $2.9bn from a prior forecast of around $3bn.

Bernstein analysts welcomed the cost discipline and what they described as a "cautious approach" to pipeline advancement, though they noted that several key milestones remain ahead.

The quarter was not without setbacks. Moderna's experimental norovirus vaccine candidate failed to meet the statistical threshold for interim success in a late-stage study, with cases accruing more slowly than the trial's design had anticipated. Hoge said the company would extend the trial through another winter season to gather sufficient data.

Attention is also turning to intismeran autogene, an individualized cancer therapy being co-developed with Merck (MRK). Barclays analysts said positive data from late-stage melanoma trials, expected later this year, could "bring meaningful credit" to Moderna's oncology pipeline, while a disappointing readout could weigh on the shares. They estimate the therapy could generate approximately $3bn in adjuvant melanoma revenue by 2035.

Moderna maintained its full-year guidance for revenue growth of up to ten per cent versus the prior year, with roughly half of sales expected to come from the US market.