Eli Lilly (LLY) raised its full-year revenue forecast by $5bn and beat third-quarter profit estimates, driven by booming demand for its injectable weight-loss drugs, partly among older Americans who pay just $50 a month for them.
The Indianapolis-based drugmaker now expects 2026 revenue of $91bn to $92bn. That underscores its widening lead in the multibillion-dollar GLP-1 market over Denmark’s Novo Nordisk (NVO) and has pushed Lilly’s market value to $1.2tn. Shares rose more than 6 per cent in afternoon trading to $1,369.79, after briefly hitting a record high of $1,408.
Lilly reported third-quarter revenue of $24.4bn, ahead of analyst expectations of $22.6bn, while adjusted earnings of $7.48 a share comfortably beat estimates of $6.26, according to LSEG data. Revenue included about $900mn of benefits, chiefly $410mn of milestone payments tied to the diabetes drug Jardiance, which Lilly said are the last it expects to receive, along with favorable adjustments to rebate and discount estimates.
Sales of the diabetes drug Mounjaro reached $10.72bn, above Wall Street forecasts of $10.16bn. Zepbound, the related obesity injection, brought in $5.35bn against estimates of $5.09bn. International Mounjaro sales rose 93 per cent from a year earlier to $5.7bn, which Lilly cited as another reason for the higher forecast.
A pilot program with Medicare, launched in July for people aged 65 and older or with disabilities, has brought Lilly more than 500,000 new customers, the company said. The pilot also covers Novo’s weight-loss drugs. Most of Lilly’s non-reimbursed sales have historically come from its $449-a-month cash-pay platform, which raises the stakes over how the government discounts will affect long-term margins.
Realized prices fell 15 per cent in the quarter, offsetting part of a 53 per cent rise in volume. US prices dropped 7 per cent, a decline Lilly attributed mainly to Zepbound and said was partly offset by adjustments to rebate and discount estimates. Prices outside the US fell 29 per cent, driven largely by Mounjaro’s inclusion on China’s national reimbursement drug list.
Lilly trimmed its 2026 adjusted earnings guidance to $35 to $36 a share, from $35.50 to $36.50, citing large charges in the quarter, primarily related to its acquisitions of AtaiBeckley and Curevo. Greg Halter, director of research at Carnegie Investment Counsel, which owns more than 16,000 Lilly shares, shrugged off the 50-cent reduction. “They’re spending money so that they can make money down the road,” he said.
The weak spot was Foundayo, Lilly’s newer obesity pill, which generated $184mn in sales, short of estimates of $216.9mn. Investors are watching its rollout as a key test of whether Lilly can blunt Novo’s first-mover advantage with its oral Wegovy. Lucas Montarce, Lilly’s chief financial officer, said the shortfall reflected stocking in the launch quarter rather than weak demand. He said about $30mn of second-quarter revenue was inventory sold into the channel, which analysts cannot see. Excluding it, he said, US demand more than tripled to over $120mn from about $37mn.
Montarce also pointed to Foundayo’s share of new-to-brand prescriptions, which doubled from the previous quarter to about 40 per cent. Initial US prescriptions have trailed oral Wegovy, but some analysts expect the Lilly pill to become a significant growth driver as it launches in more international markets. It went on sale in the US and Britain earlier this year and could reach other European countries by year-end. “Foundayo continues to lag,” said Evan Seigerman, an analyst at BMO Capital Markets, “though the strength of Lilly’s broader commercial business makes this less of a concern in our view.”
Wall Street’s attention is also shifting to retatrutide, Lilly’s next-generation weight-loss candidate, which is slated for regulatory submission next year. The drug drove average weight loss of 24 per cent in midstage trials, topping the results of drugs already on the market.